Iron ore plummeted, will steel prices fall more this week?

On July 27, the domestic steel market prices fell slightly. Tangshan steel billet fell 20 yuan to 3370 yuan/ton. Today, the black futures market fell across the board, leading to a slight drop in spot prices and slowing market transactions. On the 27th, black series futures fell across the board, the main closing price of snails 3723 fell 1.22%, and iron ore 2009 closed at 814.5, down 1.99%.

In the early trading period, the snails fluctuated and weakened. In the morning, steel prices in most areas of the country remained stable and fell slightly. From the perspective of transactions, the weakening of the spot price resonance has led to the spread of bearish sentiment in the market. Most merchants have reported that the speculative demand in the market is sluggish, and downstream procurement demand has also slowed down. At present, on the one hand, short-term steel mill profits are acceptable, and construction steel production is still relatively high year-on-year; on the other hand, steel factory warehouses and community warehouses continue to increase. Under the influence of low demand, the steel market is still under pressure to absorb high inventory. Larger.

The domestic economy continues to recover and improve, and the industry chain market has loose money and abundant funds. It is more optimistic about the market outlook; last week, the growth rate of steel inventory narrowed. The rainy season in East China has passed, and steel consumption is expected to continue to recover. In addition, raw material prices are relatively strong. Steel prices are still supported. Steel inventory continued to accumulate last week. The total rebar inventory was 3.12 million tons higher than the same period last year, an increase of 40%. Apparent consumption fell to 3.5764 million tons, which was a recent low level. From the perspective of fundamental data, steel supply and demand levels It is worse than the same period, and with the rise of steel futures prices, the probability of steel price corrections has greatly increased in the case of negative basis.

The promotion of macro expectations. In the medium and long term, the domestic economy is still expected to gradually improve, and there is a high expectation for demand recovery after the rainy season. Especially as the main contract variety for delivery in October, the bullish sentiment still exists. However, due to the short-term tensions between China and the United States, there will be a period of correction pressure.

Black futures fell across the board, market transaction prices generally fell, speculative demand from traders was sluggish, and terminal purchases slowed down. With the end of the rainy season, market demand has not been as strong as expected, and the mentality is biased towards caution. At present, on the one hand, the current steel mills still have a small profit, and the construction steel production is still relatively high year-on-year; on the other hand, the construction steel factory warehouses and social warehouses continue to increase. Under the influence of the off-season demand, the market absorbs the pressure of high inventory Still larger. It is expected that domestic steel prices may continue to be weak in the short term.